A Novel Approach for Inverting Forest Fuel Moisture Content Utilizing Multi-Source Remote Sensing and Deep Learning

Fuel Moisture Content (FMC) is a critical indicator for assessing forest fire risk and formulating early warning strategies, as its spatiotemporal dynamics directly influence the accuracy of fire danger rating. To improve the accuracy of forest FMC estimation, this study proposes an innovative deep learning method integrating multi-source remote sensing data. By combining the global feature extraction capability of the Transformer architecture with the local temporal modeling advantages of Gated Recurrent Units (GRU) (referred to as the Transformer-GRU model), a high-precision FMC estimation framework is established. The study focuses on forested areas in California, USA, utilizing ground-measured FMC data alongside multi-source remote sensing datasets from MODIS, Sentinel-1, and Sentinel-2. A systematic comparison was conducted among Transformer-GRU model, standalone Transformer models, single GRU models, and two classical machine learning models (Random Forest, RF, and Support Vector Regression, SVR). Additionally, forward feature selection was employed to evaluate the performance of different models and feature combinations. The results demonstrate that (1) All models effectively utilize the derived features from multi-source remote sensing data, confirming the significant enhancement of multi-source data fusion for forest FMC estimation; (2) The Transformer-GRU model outperforms other models in capturing the nonlinear relationship between FMC and remote sensing data, achieving superior estimation accuracy (R2 = 0.79, MAE = 8.70%, RMSE = 11.44%, rRMSE = 12.60%); (3) The spatiotemporal distribution patterns of forest FMC in California generated by the Transformer-GRU model align well with regional geographic characteristics and climatic variability, while exhibiting a strong relationship with historical wildfire occurrences. The proposed Transformer-GRU model provides a novel approach for high-precision FMC estimation, offering reliable technical support for dynamic forest fire risk early warning and resource management.