Contrastive Cross-Lingual Calibration for Large Language Models

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in multilingual settings, yet their probability estimates are often miscalibrated, particularly for low-resource languages and code-switched inputs. We present C³, a post-hoc calibration framework that reduces cross-lingual miscalibration by optimizing language-aware temperature and bias parameters using contrastive counterfactuals generated via translation/back-translation and meaning-preserving perturbations. C³ aligns confidence across languages without retraining the base model. On classification (XNLI) and extractive/generative QA (XQuAD, MLQA, TyDi QA GoldP), C³ lowers Expected Calibration Error by 35–57% and Brier score by 9–18%, with modest accuracy gains (0.7–2.1 pp). For generative QA, hallucination rate decreases by 21% while maintaining answer quality. Benefits are largest for Swahili and Arabic and persist under code-switch and spelling noise. Ablations show that contrastive counterfactuals and language-specific scaling both contribute, and isotonic fusion improves tails of the confidence distribution. We release calibration recipes and evaluation scripts to support responsible multilingual deployment.