Cultivating Climate Precarity: Mechanisms of Surplus Capture and Immiserizing Growth in Guatemala's Horticultural Export Sector

In recent decades, prominent development organizations have promoted market inclusion and agricultural value chain integration as pathways to rural prosperity in the Global South. Focusing upon the experiences of Indigenous Kaqchikel peasants in Guatemala's horticultural export sector, this paper offers a cautionary tale. Drawing upon Carmen Diana Deere's pioneering work on the political economy of agrarian change, I examine how mechanisms of surplus transfer have been reconfigured and intensified through the incorporation of peasants into export markets for fresh fruits and vegetables. Fusing Deere's framework with insights from the political ecology literature on climate change adaptation, I show how development initiatives that promise inclusion and poverty alleviation can, paradoxically, deepen socio‐economic inequality and environmental vulnerability. Guatemala has emerged as a prominent exporter of horticultural products and the sector generates substantial profits and foreign exchange. Yet the historical marginalization of Kaqchikel farmers means that they are often adversely incorporated into agricultural value chains. Their integration into exploitative market relations has produced mounting debts and deepening environmental precarity. The result is a stark example of immiserizing growth.