Stress Testing of Banks in Ukraine: Development of Methodology and Future Challenges in Conditions of Uncertainty

The article analyzes the current state of stress testing as a key tool for banking regulation and risk management, its evolution after the global financial crisis of 2007–2009. The article examines in detail how regulatory authorities, including the NBU, have transitioned from internal banking processes to the systematic implementation of stress testing to assess capital adequacy under adverse conditions, improve risk management practices, and ensure market transparency. The relevance of further scientific research on this issue is substantiated, driven by the complexity of the financial risk landscape, the interconnections among them, and the challenges of clearly defining and encompassing all potential threats in stress testing scenarios. Particular attention is paid to the necessity of adapting stress testing methodologies to the realities of martial law in Ukraine, as well as minimizing potential side effects of stress testing on lending to economies. The proposed ways for further improving stress testing include: the development of more complex methodologies for scenario generation that encompass derivative risks and complex interactions; enhancing coordination between regulatory jurisdictions to reduce regulatory burdens while maintaining effective supervision; integrating technological solutions such as machine learning and artificial intelligence for dynamic testing and real-time risk monitoring; improving model validation practices to mitigate estimation and specification risks; taking into account behavioral economics and new types of risks, including climate risks. The article emphasizes that the future effectiveness of stress testing will depend on eliminating current limitations and the ability to adapt to new challenges, including climate change, cyber threats, and technological disruptions, which is critical for maintaining financial stability.