Carbon Emissions: Impact on Economic Structure, Energy Policy and Climate — Case Studies of China and Russia

In the face of escalating climate challenges, CO₂ reduction has become a central objective of sustainable development, particularly for countries such as China and Russia, which follow distinct economic and energy paths. This paper aims to conduct a comparative analysis of the impact of economic structural transformation, energy policy evolution, and global climate governance mechanisms on CO₂ emission dynamics. The study tests three hypotheses: (H1) structural adjustment reduces emissions; (H2) energy policy produces divergent effects; and (H3) global mechanisms affect countries differently. The empirical analysis draws on panel data from 2000–2023, covering GDP per capita (GDPpc), the shares of fossil energy (FE) and renewable energy (RE), economic structure (IS), and a dummy variable for the presence of an emissions trading system (CT). Fixed-effects estimations reveal that in China, GDPpc has a strong positive effect on emissions (β = 0.415–0.591, p < 0.01), while structural reforms and the carbon market significantly reduce them. In Russia, the GDPpc effect is weak (β = 0.01–0.049), structural variables are statistically insignificant, and a national carbon market is absent. China is pursuing a more proactive energy transition strategy, characterized by a rising share of renewables and reduced reliance on fossil fuels. The study showcases the need for stronger economic incentives and greater international cooperation in carbon regulation.