Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Future Projections of Land Use and Land Cover Change in Shihezi City, Xinjiang, China

Land use and land cover change (LUCC) is central to regulating human–land relationships and crucial for urban planning and sustainable development in arid oasis cities. As a typical oasis city in Xinjiang, Shihezi City faces the triple challenges of agricultural protection, urban expansion, and ecological conservation. Taking Shihezi City as the research object, this study used the 30 m resolution China Land Cover Dataset and applied the land use dynamic degree, comprehensive index of land use degree, transfer matrix, Geodetector, and PLUS model to analyse the spatiotemporal dynamics of LUCC from 2002 to 2022, identify driving mechanisms, and predict the land use pattern from 2027 to 2032. The results showed that (1) from 2002 to 2022, farmland decreased by 86.1075 km2, man-made surfaces increased by 63.7389 km2 (annual expansion rate of 2.86%), grassland slightly increased by 24.5592 km2, and other land types remained stable; (2) the dynamics of land use showed a phased characteristic of “growth–equilibrium–acceleration”, and the land use degree index rose to 2.8639; natural factors (elevation, soil, temperature) dominated LUCC, and most interactions among factors showed enhancement effects; (3) the PLUS model predicted that by 2032, farmland would decrease to 224.347 km2 and man-made surfaces would increase to 111.941 km2. This study clarifies the laws of LUCC in Shihezi, demonstrates driving analysis and simulation prediction, and provides scientific support for balancing urban development, agricultural protection, and ecological security in arid oasis regions.