Projected Shifts in Colombian Sweet Potato Germplasm Under Climate Change

Extreme climate events—such as heatwaves, floods, and droughts—are increasingly affecting ecosystems, with the global average temperature projected to rise by up to 3 °C (IPCC, 2023) due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. These changes pose critical challenges to food security, as evidenced by 733 million people facing hunger in 2024. In response, crop modeling considering different climate change scenarios has become a valuable tool to guide the development of climate-resilient agricultural strategies. Despite its nutritional importance and capacity to thrive across diverse environments, Ipomoea batatas (sweet potato) remains understudied in terms of potential spatial distribution forecasting, particularly in regions of high agrobiodiversity such as northwestern South America. Therefore, in this study we modeled the projected distribution of wild and landrace sweet potato genepools in the northern Andes under four future timeframes using seven machine learning algorithms. Our results predicted a 50% reduction in the climatically suitable range for the wild genepool by 2081, coupled with an average altitudinal shift from 1537 to 2216 m above sea level (a.s.l.). For landraces, a 36% reduction was projected by 2080, with a shift from 62 to 1995 m a.s.l. By the end of the century, suitable zones for both wild and cultivated genepools are expected to converge in high-altitude regions such as the Colombian Massif, with additional remnants of wild populations near the mountain range of Farallones de Cali. This modeling approach provides essential insights into the spatial dynamics of I. batatas under climate change, highlighting the need for ex situ conservation planning in vulnerable regions as well as assisted migration to more suitable areas. Future research should integrate edaphic and biotic interaction data to better approach the realized niche of the species and understand potential responses under a niche conservatism assumption, as well as genomic data to account for the species’ intrinsic adaptative potential, overall informing conservation, germplasm mobilization, and pre-breeding strategies that may ultimately secure the role of sweet potato in resilient food systems.