Exploring Experiences in Event Management Under Uncertainty: The Four “Knowns” Framework

This study explores event managers’ experiences under pandemic-driven uncertainty, focusing on the Kyoto Marathon and the Osaka Marathon during the COVID-19 pandemic. Grounded in critical realism, we thematically analyzed data from archival materials (9,453 archival pages) and 14 interviews with secretariat members, and identified five key experiences: (1) Difficulty in ensuring safety, (2) A trade-off between empty expenses and accurate judgement, (3) Sponsor considerations, (4) Concern about reputational damage, and (5) Conflict between institutional logics and stakeholders’ organizational logics. We then compared these findings with existing knowledge, using the four “knowns” framework on uncertainty, which consists of: Known-Knowns, Known-Unknowns, Unknown-Knowns, and Unknown-Unknowns (Horne, 2007; Phan & Wood, 2020). Findings highlight the dynamic nature of pandemic-driven uncertainty and the overlooked state of Unknown-Knowns. These theoretical and conceptual insights offer implications for both researchers and practitioners in event management to better prepare for future uncertainty.