The Long-Term Surface Deformation Monitoring and Prediction of Hutubi Gas Storage Reservoir in Xinjiang Based on InSAR and the GWO-VMD-GRU Model

Natural gas storage is an effective solution to address the energy supply–demand imbalance, and underground gas storage (UGS) is a primary method for storing natural gas. The overarching goal of this study is to monitor and analyze surface deformation at the Hutubi underground gas storage facility in Xinjiang, China, which is the largest gas storage facility in the country. This research aims to ensure the stable and efficient operation of the facility through long-term monitoring, using remote sensing data and advanced modeling techniques. The study employs the SBAS-InSAR method, leveraging Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data from the TerraSAR and Sentinel-1 sensors to observe displacement time series from 2013 to 2024. The data is processed through wavelet transformation for denoising, followed by the application of a Gray Wolf Optimization (GWO) algorithm combined with Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) to decompose both surface deformation and gas pressure data. The key focus is the development of a high-precision predictive model using a Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) network, referred to as GWO-VMD-GRU, to accurately predict surface deformation. The results show periodic surface uplift and subsidence at the facility, with a notable net uplift. During the period from August 2013 to March 2015, the maximum uplift rate was 6 mm/year, while from January 2015 to December 2024, it increased to 12 mm/year. The surface deformation correlates with gas injection and extraction periods, indicating periodic variations. The accuracy of the InSAR-derived displacement data is validated through high-precision GNSS data. The GWO-VMD-GRU model demonstrates strong predictive performance with a coefficient of determination (R2) greater than 0.98 for the gas well test points. This study provides a valuable reference for the future safe operation and management of underground gas storage facilities, demonstrating significant contributions to both scientific understanding and practical applications in underground gas storage management.