Decoding Afghan Emigration: Informing Eu Policy Amid the Migration Crisis and Brain Drain From Afghanistan

In August 2021, the collapse of the ex-government in Afghanistan triggered a notable emigration crisis, marked by economic decline and social instability. This crisis resulted in a substantial brain drain, depleting skilled professionals and adversely affecting essential services provided by the interim government. In response to Afghanistan's emigration crisis, the EU prioritized human rights, governance, counterterrorism, humanitarian aid, and the safe travel of vulnerable Afghans to the EU as part of the emergency response plan. The EU is cautious to prevent a potential migration crisis in some EU countries, aiming to avoid a repeat of 2015. Additionally, human rights groups emphasize the need for safe evacuation, resettlement in the EU, and relaxed immigration policies for Afghans. They criticize the current EU efforts as falling short, highlighting the necessity for a more sustainable, informed policy response in the EU and Afghanistan to Afghan immigrants, refugees, and evacuees. Thus, the study's main objective is to investigate the factors influencing the emigration decisions of Afghans and also of Afghans with various education levels. In light of these findings, the study provides policy recommendations to origin and destination countries. In two steps, using a random effect logistic regression model with a panel cross-sectional dataset, significant findings emerge. The first step confirms the significant impact of economic, social, and demographic factors on the emigration decisions of Afghans. In the second step, findings for different education levels indicate that individuals with a master's degree are significantly influenced by political instability and connections with the diaspora abroad, rather than economic or demographic factors. Bachelor's degree holders, in addition to political instability and family ties abroad, show a strong association with insecurity as determinants of their emigration decisions. In contrast, other educational categories, such as the uneducated, high school graduates, and vocational school graduates, exhibit a significant correlation with all three factors - social, economic, and demographic. These findings have policy implications for addressing challenges arising from Afghanistan's brain drain at the origin and Afghan immigrants in the destination (EU).