Effect of COVID-19 pandemic on cigarette sales: The case of Türkiye

Background: Considering the extraordinary situation of COVID-19, Türkiye government alongside with civil organizations used this opportunity to inform people about harmful effects of smoking during pandemic period and to encourage them for cessation. Accordingly, the primary aim of this paper is to compare cigarette sales data pre- and post- COVID-19 pandemic in Türkiye. Methods: The cigarette sales in January – June 2020 were compared with the same months in 2019. Permutation Wilcoxon Signed-Rank Test was used for data analysis. A 6-month prediction was made for the remaining months in 2020 using the Box Jenkins ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) time series model. The monthly cigarette sales were graphed against the expected monthly cigarette sales (average cigarette sales in 2019) to determine pattern pre- and post-COVID-19. Results: There was a significant decrease in manufactured cigarette sales in January – June 2020 comparing with the same months in 2019. The cigarette sales in February – May 2020 were below the expected monthly cigarette sales. If this trend continues, cigarette sales will drop to 10,002,121,177 sticks/month by the end of 2020. Conclusions: Governments and organizations should use this pandemic period to strengthen the implementation of existing tobacco control policies and increase smoking cessation campaigns.