CO2 Emissions and Scenario Analysis of Transportation Sector Based on STIRPAT Model: A Case Study of Xuzhou in Northern Jiangsu

To support carbon peaking and neutrality goals in the city transportation sector, this paper accounts for CO2 emissions from the transport sector in Xuzhou City, North Jiangsu Province, from 1995 to 2023. This study explores the relationship between transport-related carbon emissions and economic growth, using the TAPIO decoupling index. Meanwhile, a carbon emission prediction model based on the STIRPAT framework is constructed, with scenario analysis applied to forecast future emissions. Results show three decoupling stages: the first, dominated by weak and expansive negative decoupling, reflects extensive economic growth; the second features weak decoupling with expansive coupling, indicating a more environmentally coordinated phase; the third transitions from expansive negative decoupling and weak decoupling to strong decoupling and expansive coupling, suggesting a shift in development patterns. Under the baseline, low-carbon, and enhanced low-carbon scenarios, by 2030, the CO2 emissions of the transportation industry in Xuzhou will be 10,154,700 tons, 9,072,500 tons, and 8,835,000 tons, respectively, and the CO2 emissions under the low-carbon scenario and the enhanced low-carbon scenario will be reduced by 10.66% and 13.00%, respectively. Based on these findings, the study proposes carbon reduction strategies for Xuzhou’s transport sector, focusing on policy regulation, energy use, and structural adjustments.