Impact of Climate Change on the Spatial Distribution of Rainfall on the Agriculture Branches in Nineveh Governorate Using Geographic Information Systems

The Nineveh Governorate, like much of Iraq, is increasingly affected by climate change, particularly through reduced and highly variable annual rainfall. These changes have directly impacted the cultivation of strategic crops, especially wheat and barley. The decline in rainfall has resulted in a significant shortage of water for rain-fed agriculture, the predominant farming method in the southern regions of the governorate, leading to reduced cultivated areas and lower crop productivity. This study aims to update the rainfall map of agricultural branches within Nineveh Governorate and to assess the suitability of these lands for crop cultivation under current climatic conditions by using the climate database of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the capabilities of Geographical Information System (GIS) software. The results reveal a noticeable shift, with southern agricultural sectors moving from pasture lands to Low-Rainfall Areas (LRA), while other sectors have shifted from Moderate-Rainfall Areas (MRA) to High-Rainfall Areas (HRA). These findings highlight emerging opportunities for re-planning agricultural activities in response to climate developments, representing a critical step toward enhancing climate change adaptation strategies.