Uncertainty-Aware Earthquake Forecasting Using a Bayesian Neural Network with Elastic Weight Consolidation

Effective earthquake early warning (EEW) is essential for disaster prevention in the built environment, enabling a rapid structural response, system shutdown, and occupant evacuation to mitigate damage and casualties. However, most current EEW systems lack rigorous reliability analyses of their predictive outcomes, limiting their effectiveness in real-world scenarios—especially for on-site warnings, where data are limited and time is critical. To address these challenges, we propose a Bayesian neural network (BNN) framework based on Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD). By performing Bayesian inference, we estimate the posterior distribution of the parameters, thus outputting a reliability analysis of the prediction results. In addition, we incorporate a continual learning mechanism based on elastic weight consolidation, allowing the system to adapt quickly without full retraining. Our experiments demonstrate that our SVGD-BNN model significantly outperforms traditional peak displacement (Pd)-based approaches. In a 3 s time window, the Pearson correlation coefficient R increases by 9.2% and the residual standard deviation SD decreases by 24.4% compared to a variational inference (VI)-based BNN. Furthermore, the prediction variance generated by the model can effectively reflect the uncertainty of the prediction results. The continual learning strategy reduces the training time by 133–194 s, enhancing the system’s responsiveness. These features make the proposed framework a promising tool for real-time, reliable, and adaptive EEW—supporting disaster-resilient building design and operation.