Study on the Decoupling Elasticity and Driving Factors of Carbon Emissions From Provincial Industries and Economic Growth in China

This study investigates the evolution and underlying drivers of carbon emissions across China's provincial industrial sectors using data from 2012 to 2017. An Input–Output Structural Decomposition Analysis (IO‐SDA) model is employed to disaggregate the factors influencing carbon emission changes, while the Tapio decoupling model is integrated to quantitatively assess the extent to which carbon emissions have been decoupled from economic growth at the provincial level. The results show that over the study period carbon emissions from China's provincial industries increased by a cumulative total of 231.84 Mt, with the electricity and heat production sectors contributing the most, despite marked reductions in their emission intensity. Among the factors analysed, the energy intensity effect and input–output technology effect were the primary forces mitigating emission growth, with the energy intensity effect being particularly influential. In contrast, the final demand effect was identified as the dominant driver of increased emissions in the eastern, central, and western regions, while the northeastern region exhibited a net suppressive effect. Furthermore, both the direct and total carbon intensity of the energy sector rose significantly, with direct consumption accounting for the majority of emissions and indirect emissions concentrated in the first‐ and second‐tier production sectors. The decoupling index exhibited a general downward trend across provinces, evolving from expansionary negative decoupling to expansionary coupling, weak decoupling, and eventually strong decoupling, although some provinces experienced rebound effects. These findings offer empirical insights into the structural and regional heterogeneity of emission drivers. The study concludes by proposing targeted policy measures to reduce the carbonization of final demand, optimise energy and industrial structures, and strengthen regulatory governance in support of China's dual‐carbon goals.