Quantitative Risk Analysis of Induced Microseismicity during CO2 Sequestration: Implications for Reservoir Integrity and MMV

Induced microseismicity represents a significant risk in the deployment of large-scale CO2 sequestration projects, where the injection of CO2 into subsurface reservoirs alters pore pressures and in-situ stresses, potentially triggering fault reactivation. Coupled flow and geomechanics simulation results provides valuable feedback on the link between injection pressures and reservoir stress conditions and can be used to predict induced microseismicity. Recognizing the threshold at which microseismicity increases can guide operators to maintain injection pressure below critical levels, reducing the likelihood of larger seismic events. Moreover, although microseismic events are generally too low in magnitude to be felt at the surface, cumulative or escalating microseismic activity can raise concerns within communities near sequestration sites. Traditional risk analysis in CO2 sequestration often relies on historical data and qualitative assessments, in this study we propose a modeling-based quantitative risk analysis for induced microseismicity during CO2 sequestration, providing a more sophisticated and data-driven approach.