Key Aspects of Analyzing the State of Ukraine’s Debt Security

The article discusses the key aspects of analyzing the state of Ukraine’s debt security in the context of increased debt burden, chronic budget deficits, and the full-scale war. The aim of the study is to assess the state of Ukraine’s debt security, analyze the dynamics of debt indicators, and develop a forecasting model to identify risks to debt security. The research employs a structural-logical approach, statistical analysis, standardization of indicators according to methodological recommendations for economic security, as well as ARIMA modeling and forecasting in an Excel environment. This approach enables tracking the dynamics of changes in the debt structure, identifying critical points of declining security, and determining which indicators shape the overall trend. Based on the standardization according to the Methodological recommendations, an integrated indicator of debt security was calculated, which visually reflects the changes in the level of debt security from 2018 to 2024. A trend has been identified towards a decrease in the indicator value in 2022–2024, indicating an escalation of debt vulnerability, despite some signals of stabilization. In particular, the decrease in the yield on government bonds and the increase in international reserves positively impact the level of debt security. Also, the indicator is negatively affected by exceeding the critical debt-to-GDP ratio, the high share of external liabilities in the debt structure, and the growth of debt servicing costs. Analyzing these factors allows for a more accurate understanding of the current state of debt security and the development of practical recommendations for its strengthening, including optimizing the structure of liabilities, developing the domestic borrowing market, and enhancing control over debt risks. The results of the study can be used for management decisions aimed at improving the level of debt security in Ukraine.