Aligning spatiotemporal supply and demand of nature’s contribution to people (NCPs) for sustainable resource management

Abstract Sustainable resource management requires a dynamic understanding of how ecosystems meet human needs over space and time. This study presents an integrative approach that combines spatial and temporal analyses of Nature’s Contributions to People (NCPs), aiming to systematically assess the evolving alignment between their long-term supply and societal demand. By combining historical trajectories with current NCPs budgets and employing a clustering approach, we uncover emerging imbalances, shifting dependencies, and shared pathways within and between municipalities and larger regions. Our findings show that NCPs demand often outpaces supply, leading to increasing deficits and ecosystem stress, particularly in urbanized regions. Conversely, rural municipalities generally exhibit surpluses, though these are subject to shifting pressures over time. The observed patterns emphasize the importance of polycentric governance and proactive management strategies that account for both local sustainability and broader interdependencies. This approach provides valuable insights for policymakers and planners seeking to balance ecological integrity with societal needs in a rapidly changing landscape.