A Mouse Between Two Elephants: How Canada’s Economic Dependence on the United States Reduces its Policy Autonomy Toward China

Caught between two global powers, Canada’s economic dependence on the United States severely constrains its policy autonomy toward China, forcing alignment with American strategic priorities despite potential costs to its interests. Analyzing three key flashpoints—the extradition case of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou, Canada’s exclusion of Huawei from 5G networks, and the China-related clauses in the USMCA—this study demonstrates how political-economic dependence trumps legal or sovereign considerations. The Meng case reveals Canada’s role as an unwilling intermediary in U.S.-China tensions, while the Huawei ban reflects post-9/11 security bargains prioritizing U.S. market access over independent policymaking. Symbolic provisions like USMCA Article 32.10 further institutionalize Canada’s convergence with U.S. trade restrictions on China, underscoring the staples-driven reality of Canada’s economy. Even as Canadian leaders rhetorically pursue diversification, structural reliance on U.S. trade and investment leaves little room for meaningful autonomy. These dynamics, entrenched across administrations in both countries, suggest Canada will remain a secondary actor in the escalating U.S.-China rivalry for decades.