Industrial Transformation's Impact on Carbon Emission Models' Secondary Industry Default Assumptions: A Zhejiang Case via STRIPAT

Against the backdrop of the "carbon peak" and "carbon neutrality" goals, as well as the imperative for industrial structure transformation and upgrading, understanding how industrial structural changes impact carbon emissionsand assessing the practical applicability of relevant analytical modelshas taken on crucial real - world significance. Against this context, this paper selects Zhejiang Province, a region with notable trends in industrial transformation and upgrading in China, as the subject of study. Using the STRIPAT model, the relationship between industrial structure changes and carbon emissions in Zhejiang Province is examined, and the validity of assumptions taken for granted in previous research is tested against real-world developments. The model results show that the traditional approach of using secondary industry output as a proxy for industrial structure is valid in the current economic context. However, empirical evidence shows that the tertiary industry's influence on carbon emissions is becoming more prominent as it expands and outputs. Future research should account for both output volume and the proportional share of the tertiary industry to better understand the relationship between industrial structure and environmental impact. The paper concludes with policy recommendations for sustainable development strategies and environmentally responsible economic growth.