Predictors of risk and resilience to psychopathology in refugee youth: A longitudinal study

Refugee youth are at high risk for trauma-related disorders - outcomes not only the result of pre-migration trauma, but consequences of diverse post-migration stressors. This study identified individual, parental, and environmental factors - some potentially modifiable - associated with trajectories of psychological risk and resilience in 291 Syrian and Iraqi refugee youth during resettlement in the U.S. Data was collected at arrival and at two follow-up visits up to 7 years post-arrival. Linear mixed modeling assessed predictors of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), anxiety, and depression trajectories. Victimization trauma (i.e., assault) and lower maternal subjective social status predicted more severe PTSD (p = .046, f2 = .07; p < .001, f2 = .23) and anxiety (p = .008, f2 = .05; p = .002, f2 = .11) trajectories in youth. Paternal unemployment predicted less stable PTSD (p = .009, f2 = .13) and anxiety (p < .001, f2 = .10) trajectories. More severe depression trajectories were associated with female sex (p = .045, f2 = .06) and death threat traumas (p = .014, f2 = .07). Findings identified predictors of long-term risk and resilience for refugee youth, as well as potentially modifiable ecological risk factors. Victimization and death threat trauma exposure could be salient in identifying youth at high risk for trauma-related symptoms early in resettlement. Indicators of financial security were also associated with symptoms, suggesting environmental intervention targets.