Investigating the Cosmic and Solar Drivers of Stratospheric ⁷Be Variability

Space weather exerts a significant influence on the Earth’s atmosphere, driving a variety of physical processes, including the production of cosmogenic radionuclides. Among these, 7Be is a naturally occurring radionuclide formed through spallation reactions induced by cosmic-ray showers interacting with atmospheric constituents, primarily oxygen and nitrogen. Over long timescales, the atmospheric concentration of 7Be exhibits a direct correlation with the cosmic-ray flux reaching the Earth and an inverse correlation with solar activity, which modulates this flux via variations of the heliosphere. The large availability of 7Be concentration data, resulting from its use as a natural tracer employed in atmospheric transport studies and in monitoring the fallout from radiological incidents such as the Chernobyl disaster, can also be exploited to investigate the impact of space weather conditions on the terrestrial atmosphere and related geophysical processes. The present study analyzes a long-term dataset of monthly 7Be activity concentrations in air samples collected at ground level since 1987 at the ENEA Casaccia Research Center in Rome, Italy. In particular, the statistical dependency and correlation of this time series with the galactic cosmic ray flux on Earth and solar activity have been investigated. Data from a ground-based neutron monitor and sunspot numbers have been used as proxies for galactic cosmic rays and solar activity, respectively. De-trending techniques were applied to the 7Be monthly time series to extract its low-frequency component associated with cosmic drivers, which is partially hide by high-frequency modulations induced by atmospheric dynamics. For Solar Cycles 22, 23, 24, and partially 25, clear statistical associations were identified, indicating that a substantial portion of the relationship between stratospheric 7Be concentrations and cosmic drivers is captured by linear correlations, while dependence analyses suggest the possible presence of additional non-linear components. These findings support the potential use of 7Be as a quantitative indicator of cosmic ray modulation and, indirectly, of solar activity.