The global burden of non-communicable diseases attributable to behavioral risk factors and its trends from 1990 to 2021

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are one of the major challenges to global public health. High alcohol use, dietary risks, and low physical activity are three risk factors that can increase the burden of NCDs. Yet, a comprehensive study on the impacts of these three factors is currently lacking. The estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were used to quantify trends in disease burden. Additionally, correlation analysis was performed to explore the relationship between disease burden and the socio-demographic index (SDI). Frontier analysis was utilized to examine the potential development space of 204 countries and regions, and predictive analysis was employed to study the trend of burden over the next 15 years. From 1990 to 2021, the burden of NCDs caused by high alcohol use among males decreased significantly, with the disease burden most significant in the 40-90 age group. The disease burden caused by dietary risks in the 60-89 age group was evident. The burden of NCDs caused by low physical activity among females decreased significantly. In the next 15 years, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of NCDs will show a downward trend. The burden of NCDs has decreased but remains heavy. Countries should formulate and implement corresponding public health policies in light of their actual situations to reduce the disease burden.