Oil Price Shocks and Economic Growth in Nigeria under President Bola Ahmmed Tinubu: COVID-19 Intervention

The impact of oil price shocks on the economy during emergency of Coronavirus has occupied the attention of researchers for almost four years. Though, most Nigeria-based studies are not like this, this paper explores alternative measures of oil price shocks that have been developed in the literature with a view to ascertaining the extent to which conclusions about oil price-growth depends on the definition of shocks adopted during pandemic. The relatively recent regime dependent logic regression threshold autoregressive model, together with impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition adopted in this study. One third data spanning from 2020 to 2024 was used, a non-linear model of oil price shocks and economic growth during the event of Coronavirus is estimated. The study findings indicate that oil price shocks are unaccounted for significant proportion of observed movements in macroeconomic aggregates during the Coronavirus pandemic. This pattern persists despite introduction of threshold effects by government. This implied the enclave nature of Nigeria’s oil sector with strong linkages to other sector. Therefore, the need to spend oil revenue productively is imperative if favourable effect on real output growth is envisaged in post COVID-19 period.