Scale-Fusion Transformer: A Medium-to-Long-Term Forecasting Model for Parking Space Availability

Urban parking spaces are key city resources that directly affect how easily people get around and the quality of their daily travel. Accurately predicting future parking space availability can improve the efficiency of using parking spaces. For instance, it can enhance smart parking applications like shared parking and EV charging scheduling. However, because parking behavior is dynamic and constantly changing, it is challenging to predict parking space availability over the medium-to-long term. This paper proposes a Scale-Fusion Transformer model (SFFormer) to address dynamic changes in parking spaces availability caused by complex parking behaviors, as well as challenges in medium-to-long-term prediction modeling. The three key innovations are as follows: (1) a scale-fusion module integrating short-term and long-term parking trends, (2) an adaptive data compression mechanism for multi-scale prediction tasks, and (3) a Transformer-encoder-based time pattern capturing architecture, which is adaptable to diverse parking lots and long-term prediction scenarios. Experiments on real parking datasets demonstrate that the SFFormer model significantly outperforms state-of-the-art models such as iTransformer, PatchTST, DLinear, and Autoformer.