Sources of input uncertainty and their impact on flood hazard forecasting

In catchments that are poorly monitored, or in catchments that are not gauged, the degree of uncertainty in predicting flood risk is high. Unfortunately, this is a common picture in Bulgaria. The presence of climatic changes and the uncertainty in the determination of basic input parameters, such as water quantity, Manning’s roughness coefficient, etc., influence the flood modelling process. Under these conditions, in the search for adaptive and reliable flood risk management strategies, the uncertainty is quantified using the Monte Carlo method to generate probabilistic results.