Projection model of teacher requirements for the implementation of CBC in senior schools in Vihiga County, Kenya, in 2026

The purpose of this study was to model projection of teacher requirements for the implementation of the Competency Based Curriculum (CBC) in Senior Schools in Kenya in 2026. The CBC system of 2-6-3-3-3 was launched in 2017 and it faces out the 8-4-4 system. The study was guided by the rational comprehensive (Synoptic) planning theory which allows for the evaluation that consists of procedures such as cost benefit analysis, systems analysis, and forecasting (projection) research. The study adopted a predictive research design. The sample consisted of all 161 principals and all 457 head teachers adopted using a census approach. The population of the study was, MoE County Director of Education from the sampled county, 457 head teachers and 161 principals of the sampled schools. Collection of data was done by means of questionnaires, document analysis. For teacher projections, the Ministry of Education (MoE) Pupil-Teacher Ratio of 45:1 was used. The study followed Thonstad’s Grade Transition Model for projecting the CBC enrolment trends of the 2017 Grade one cohort to Junior and eventually Senior School. The study analyzed enrollment statistics from the years 2017 to 2021. The results of this study demonstrated a steady rise in CBC enrollment up until the year 2026. The estimated enrollment in senior high school is expected to rise from 24,361 in 2026 to 26,198 in 2028 in Vihiga County. The results suggest a rise in enrolment which further results in a corresponding increase in the need for teachers. The analysis determined that there will be a deficit of teachers and anticipated insufficiency of necessary facilities as a result of the expected rise in student enrollment at the Senior Secondary level by 2026. The study therefore recommended the need to expand the physical infrastructure, the need for Teachers Service Commission (TSC) to roll out a plan to employ more teachers by 2028. With the findings of this study, the MOE, and TSC may be guided to consider adequate employment of teachers who are CBC compliant. The results of this study would also provide valuable information to policy makers, such as the TSC and Ministry of Education, to develop effective policy reforms that would improve the delivery of high-quality education in Vihiga County.