From Fault Ruptures to Atmospheric Perturbations: Examining the 2016 Norcia Seismic Sequence

This study examines the 2016 Central Italy seismic sequence, analyzing the relationship between static displacement fields and seismically induced atmospheric perturbations, specifically Acoustic Gravity Waves (AGWs). Displacement fields were modeled using Coulomb software and validated with GPS data, offering robust geodetic constraints. AGW activity was assessed through potential energy derived from ERA-5 temperature profiles and predicted by a recent Magnetosphere-Ionosphere-Lithosphere coupling model. For the August 24 earthquake (Mw 6.1), observed temperature fluctuations and energy increases matched the model predictions, confirming seismically induced AGWs. The October 26 earthquake (Mw 5.9) showed no AGW injection, consistent with forecasts. For the October 30 event (Mw 6.5), severe pre-existing meteorological phenomena masked any potential seismic-induced AGWs, preventing a clear assessment. These findings, supported by realistic seismic inputs and robust geodetic constraints, highlight that moderate-to-strong earthquakes can generate AGWs, enhancing our understanding of lithosphere–atmosphere interactions and their potential role in precursor detection.