Drying of the Panama Canal in a Warming Climate

Abstract The Panama Canal is an artery of global trade, connecting the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and relying on water from Gatún Lake to operate its lock system. During droughts, falling lake levels force the Autoridad del Canal de Panamá to restrict ship transits, disrupting international supply chains. Recent droughts have raised concerns about how climate change could affect canal operations. Here we present new simulations of Gatún Lake levels using statistically downscaled, bias‐corrected model projections. We find that minimum annual lake levels decline substantially through the 21st century under higher emissions pathways (SSP3‐7.0 and SSP5‐8.5), driven primarily by reduced wet season rainfall. Though the magnitude of future drying in Central America remains uncertain, these projections—holding operational practices constant—highlight the growing risk of disruptions without adaptation or emissions mitigation. The Panama Canal illustrates both the need for infrastructure adaptation and emissions reductions to limit economic risk.