Drought Tolerance Evaluation and Classification of Foxtail Millet Core Germplasms Using Comprehensive Tolerance Indices

Drought stress critically constrains agricultural productivity in arid and semi-arid regions, necessitating the development of drought-tolerant crop varieties for sustainable food security. This study evaluated drought tolerance in 222 foxtail millet (Setaria italica) germplasms from diverse Chinese agroecological zones from 2021–2023 at a specialized identification site in Xinjiang. Field experiments used a randomized complete block design comparing normal irrigation (3000 m3/ha) with drought stress (1800 m3/ha) across 12 morpho-agronomic traits including plant height, spike characteristics, biomass, and yield components. Drought stress significantly reduced all parameters, with yield exhibiting the highest sensitivity (drought tolerance coefficient = 0.58). Principal component analysis indicated that the first three components explained 82.70% of phenotypic variance, with yield-related parameters contributing the most to genotypic differentiation. Integrated evaluation using comprehensive drought tolerance coefficient (DTC), drought resistance index (DRI), and D-values classified germplasms into five categories: highly resistant (4.50%), resistant (11.71%), moderately resistant (57.21%), sensitive (16.22%), and highly sensitive (10.36%). Correlation and stepwise regression analyses identified five critical indicators: stem basal thickness, single plant biomass, spike weight, grain weight per spike, and yield. The predictive model demonstrated exceptional accuracy (R2 = 0.9998), enabling efficient screening using the targeted traits. The elite germplasms T125 (92) and Baogu 23 (135) consistently ranked as the most drought-tolerant across all methods. These findings establish a robust methodological framework for evaluating drought tolerance in foxtail millet and provide practical selection criteria for developing climate-resilient cultivars. The identified germplasms and evaluation indices significantly contribute to agricultural sustainability in water-limited environments, supporting food security in regions that are increasingly affected by climate-induced drought stress.