Formation of an import substitution strategy through the application of digital twins

The article substantiates the relevance of shaping an import substitution strategy under the conditions of Ukraine’s high dependence on imported resources, technologies, and components. Geoeconomic turbulence, disruptions in supply chains, and a persistent trade deficit significantly increase the need for innovative solutions aimed at reducing external dependence. The research proposes the integration of digital twins (DT) into the import substitution process as a strategic tool for auditing dependencies, virtually testing domestic alternatives, and assessing risks and costs. Digital twins are viewed as advanced instruments that allow enterprises to create virtual models of production systems, monitor real-time operations, simulate scenarios, and predict the outcomes of managerial decisions. Their application provides opportunities for virtual approval of local analogs of imported components, optimization of technological processes, and evaluation of economic feasibility regarding localization of production. Statistical data on Ukraine’s foreign trade demonstrate a stable trend of import prevailing over export, highlighting structural imbalances and critical import dependence in several sectors, including food production and mechanical engineering. As a case study, the article illustrates the potential of DT implementation at a domestic machine-building enterprise, which traditionally relied on imported bearings and materials but successfully applied digital twin technology to simulate the substitution of local components without halting real production. This example confirms the efficiency of DT in enhancing resilience, minimizing risks, and ensuring competitiveness in both domestic and international markets. The findings underline the necessity of integrating digital twin technologies into strategic management as a key instrument for strengthening economic security, promoting industrial modernization, and ensuring the long-term technological independence of Ukraine.