Behavioral Bias And Manager Success In Major League Baseball

Using results from 26 Major League Baseball seasons, we investigate the connection between behavior bias, managerial success, and tenure. We ask whether managers that have overachieved, relative to prior seasons, have a greater chance of remaining in that role, and if so, what was the subsequent effect on team performance. Our results indicate that MLB owners and team general managers are susceptible to behavioral biases. Team managers that overachieve in a season, relative to recent, historical team performance, endure longer tenures with their team, however, overachieving managers have statistically similar career win percentages to managers who underachieved. This result suggests that outperformance shouldn’t be a factor when evaluating team managers but is often a driving force for decision making.