Exposure to Higher Cigarette Taxes during Adolescence Reduces Lifetime Smoking in Individuals with Elevated Genetic Risk

This study examines whether the effects of cigarette taxes on smoking behavior vary by an individual's genetic predisposition and the timing of policy exposure. Using data from the U.S. Health and Retirement Study, we link historical state-level cigarette excise taxes with polygenic indices (PGIs) for smoking behavior. We find that the timing of tax exposure has distinct effects on different margins of smoking behavior: taxes experienced during adolescence primarily influence long-term smoking participation, while taxes in older adulthood more strongly affect smoking intensity. Our key finding is a significant interaction between adolescent-era taxes and genetic risk. The smoking reduction caused by adolescent taxes is significantly greater for individuals with a higher genetic predisposition to smoke. Conversely, we find no evidence that the effects of taxes in older age are moderated by genetic risk. These results indicate that youth-targeted tax policies are particularly effective for genetically at-risk individuals, and that studies overlooking this heterogeneity may underestimate the long-run benefits of these interventions.