Drivers of Global Wheat and Corn Price Dynamics: Implications for Sustainable Food Systems

Globalisation, population growth, climate change, and energy-policy shifts have deepened interdependence between agri-food and energy systems, amplifying price volatility. This study examines the determinants of global wheat and corn price dynamics over 2000–2023, emphasising energy markets (oil and biofuels), agronomic and climatic factors, population pressure, and cross-market interdependencies. Using multiple linear regression with backward selection on annual global data from official sources (FAO, USDA, EIA and market series), we quantify the relative contributions of these drivers. The models explain most of the variation in world prices (R2 = 0.89 for wheat; 0.92 for corn). Oil prices are a dominant covariate: a 1 USD/barrel increase in Brent is associated with a 1.33 USD/t rise in the wheat price, while a 1 USD/t increase in the corn price raises the wheat price by 0.54 USD/t. Lower biodiesel output per million people is linked to higher wheat prices (+0.67 USD/t), underscoring the role of biofuel supply conditions. We also document an asymmetric yield effect—higher yields correlate positively with wheat prices but negatively with corn—consistent with crop-specific market mechanisms. Although temperature and precipitation were excluded from the regressions due to collinearity, their strong correlations with yields and biofuel activity signal continuing climate risk. The contribution of this study lies in integrating energy, climate, and agricultural market factors within a single empirical framework, offering evidence of their joint role in shaping staple grain prices. These findings add to the literature on food–energy linkages and provide insights for sustainability policies, particularly the design of integrated energy–agriculture strategies and risk-management instruments to enhance resilience in global food systems.