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September 27, 2025PLoS ONEOpen Access

Change in population structure, policy adjustment, and China’s public pension sustainability

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Authors

WFWeiwei FanJMJia MengHYHualei Yang

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Overview

Analysis reveals potential pension deficit by 2028 in China due to population structure and policy adjustments.

Key Points

  • China's public pension system may face a substantial deficit of RMB 147 trillion by 2050 without policy changes.
  • Matching fertility rates with replacement levels only marginally alleviates pension finances post-2041.
  • Delaying retirement to age 65 significantly enhances pension sustainability before 2050.
  • Economic growth and controlling pension growth are crucial to avoid deficits in the upcoming decades.

Cite This Study

Fan et al. (2025) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/68d7cc6aeebfec0fc5238e00https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0331739
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