Minimizing inequality between methane emissions and economic variations in the Belt and Road countries

The steady increase in global methane (CH4) emissions has recently drawn international attention. However, CH4 emissions in countries along the Belt and Road (B&R) remain underexamined. This study applies a multi-regional input-output analysis to quantify production-based emissions (PBEs) and consumption-based emissions (CBEs) across 138 countries and economies within the B&R region. It further employs the Lorenz curve and Gini coefficient to assess inequality in CH4 emissions across income groups in these countries and examines the degree of decoupling between PBEs/CBEs and economic growth. CH4 emissions from B&R countries contributed significantly to the global total, with major contributions from energy- and resource-intensive sectors such as agriculture, petroleum, chemical and non-metallic mineral products, construction, financial intermediation, and commercial activities. Across the region, CBEs were consistently lower than PBEs but showed a stronger upward trend. Significant inequality in CH4 emissions was observed, particularly in PBEs within high-income (H-H) countries and CBEs within low-income (L-L) countries. Over time, the gap between PBEs and CBEs in H-H countries narrowed, suggesting positive changes in economic structure or consumption patterns. By analyzing the spatial and temporal evolution of CH4 emissions, this study provides insights and policy recommendations for reducing CH4 emission inequality and developing effective mitigation strategies within the B&R region.