Determinants of Smuggling and Tax Evasion in the Municipalities of Paraná - Brazil

This article aimed at analyzing the determining factors of smuggling and contraband in the municipalities of Paraná-Brazil in the period of 2017 to 2022. To achieve this purpose, two spatial econometric estimations were conducted using the spatial Tobit model. The first estimation covered the years 2017, 2018, and 2019, while the second one encompassed the years 2020, 2021, and 2022, with focus on identifying possible changes in the determinants of smuggling and contraband resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic. The proximity to BR-277, geographical location near the borders of Paraguay and Argentina, levels of corruption among public servants, economic vulnerability, the formal crime control apparatus, and strict enforcement were identified as the main determinants of contraband crime in the municipalities of Paraná. Furthermore, it was observed that adverse events, such as the Covid-19 pandemic, can impact the determining variables of crime and alter the behavior of criminal organizations.