Long-term political mobilization among survivors after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami

Natural disasters are humanitarian crises and tests of democratic accountability: governments invest in preparedness and rapid response only when citizens stay engaged enough to reward or punish them electorally. Disasters are compound shocks: they can spark accountability demands yet impose losses and displacement that depress participation. We isolate the motivational channel by studying Swedish tourists exposed to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami (n ≈ 16{,}000) who returned home with unchanged voting costs. Linking a survivor registry to population-wide administrative data, we match survivors to controls and track ~100{,}000 individuals over 25 years (N = 90{,}000--130{,}000). Exposure increased turnout persistently, reducing abstention by 15--20% relative to controls, with effects three times larger among the most affected. A 2023 follow-up (n ≈ 3{,}000) indicates two mechanisms: enduring dissatisfaction with the government’s response and post-traumatic growth. Our findings highlight the electoral stakes of crisis management, and that they extend beyond disaster zones.