Predicting Suitable Habitats for Bubalus mindorensis (Heude, 1888) under Changing Climate Scenarios: Implications for Conservation

The tamaraw (Bubalus mindorensis) is a critically endangered bovine species that is endemic to Mindoro Island, Philippines. With the use of species distribution models (SDMs) using the MaxEnt algorithm, the study aimed to provide a comprehensive analysis of the tamaraw’s distribution for predicting the potential geographic range under current climate conditions (1970–2000) and two future climate change scenarios: SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0 (2081–2100). In total, 24 occurrence points and 12 environmental variables were used with model tuning using ENMeval and removal of highly correlated variables. The mean temperature of the warmest quarter (BIO10) and annual precipitation (BIO12) had the highest contribution and were common to the three climate scenarios with acceptable AUC values that range from 0.95–0.97. The current study aids in the identification of high-value priority areas to establish a biodiversity corridor for tamaraw protection and develop strategies to mitigate the threats facing the elusive and endemic bovine.