Projection of Future Climate Scenarios for the Metropolitan Region of the Cuiabá River Valley - An Analysis of the Urbanization Process

This study analyzes the impacts of climate change in the Metropolitan Region of the Cuiabá River Valley (RMVRC), projecting the behavior of future maximum temperatures in the face of advancing urbanization. With a population of over one million people and a semi-humid tropical climate, the region faces a worrying scenario, where projections indicate a significant increase in temperature, which could reach up to 10 °C by the end of the century. The research uses data from the CNRM-ESM2-1 climate model, coupled with the SSP370 scenario obtained by the WorldClim platform, analyzing the evolution of maximum temperatures in the periods 2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, 2081-2100. The results indicate that the urbanized areas of Baixada Cuiabana, are likely to experience more intense warming, with average annual maximum temperatures reaching up to 38 °C by 2100. Furthermore, the analysis of the percentage increase in relation to historical climate data shows that the months of climate transition may become even drier and hotter, intensifying the region's vulnerability. This scenario reinforces the importance of public policies for urban planning and adaptive solutions and mitigation strategies, aiming to reduce the impacts of climate change, protect the environment and guarantee the population's quality of life