Abstract Critical energy infrastructure along the U. S. Gulf Coast faces hurricane induced risks. While many studies assess the realized impacts of hurricane strikes, less attention has been paid to the economic consequences of anticipatory responses. Using 25 years of weekly refinery crude oil input data and 36-hour hurricane forecast information, we estimate the effect of projected storm strength and strike location on regional refinery oil input. We find that stronger forecasted hurricanes targeting larger refinery subregions significantly reduce oil input, with impacts lasting several weeks. We also identify substantial economic losses that occur even when storms do not ultimately make landfall, highlighting the cost of forecast-driven disruption. For example, our estimates show that under a Category 4 hurricane that is forecast to threaten 31% of Gulf Coast capacity, there would be a reduction of 18 million barrels in refinery throughput and an operating profit loss of 770 million.
Chen et al. (Wed,) studied this question.