The impact of the derivatives market on GDP

Subject. This article examines the relationship between the derivatives market and economic growth in the BRICS countries, including Russia, focusing on the analysis of the impact of macroeconomic factors such as inflation, open trade and government spending on this market. Objectives. The article aims to analyze the relationship between derivatives markets and economic growth, as well as other macroeconomic factors considering the BRICS countries, including Russia, for 2020–2024, and develop recommendations for improving the efficiency of using derivative instruments to stimulate economic growth. Methods. For the study, I used the panel data analysis methods, including the generalized method of moments (GMM), Hausman specification test, and the Pedroni test. Results. The article finds a causal relationship between the derivatives market and economic growth, and that trade openness and government expenditures have a significant impact on the derivatives market. In high-income countries, there is a two-way correlation with economic growth, while in upper-middle-income countries, it is unidirectional. In relation to Russia, such mechanisms do not function stably, therefore the research in this field is limited. Conclusions. To improve the accuracy of research and assessment of the derivatives market’s impact on macroeconomic variables in Russia, it is required to develop forecast models that take into account the national economy specifics.