Progressive Crohn's disease (CD) often requires early initiation of biologic or immunomodulator therapy for disease management. However, some patients may have a milder disease course that may be managed with a less aggressive strategy. Our study aims to determine cross-sectional radiographic features that predict progression of CD. This was a multi-institution, retrospective cohort of adult CD patients without prior immunomodulator or biologic use, prior surgery, or CD-related hospitalization, who underwent abdominal cross-sectional imaging prior to 2018. Index cross-sectional imaging was reviewed by 2 radiologists who extracted 37 features pertaining to the intestine, mesentery, or extra-luminal complications. The primary outcome was composite progression of disease defined as initiation of an immunomodulator or biologic agent, surgical intestinal resection, or CD-related hospitalization. Our study included 177 CD patients who underwent cross-sectional imaging (81% CT). 81 patients (45.8%) experienced composite progression of disease. On multivariable regression, small bowel wall thickening >5 mm (aOR 8.59; P < .001), distal colonic inflammation (aOR 3.95; P = .03), and segmental mural hyperenhancement (aOR 2.44; P = .04) were independently associated with progression of disease. Absence of radiologic features identified a subgroup with a low rate (13.7%) of disease progression. Cross-sectional imaging can be used to identify patients with mild CD who are at higher risk for progression. Absence of these features may identify mild CD requiring less aggressive treatment strategies and define a population eligible for trials of management strategies for mild CD.
Bachour et al. (2025) studied this question.