Prediction of the Bearing Capacity Envelope for Spudcan Foundations of Jack-Up Rigs in Hard Clay with Varying Strengths

In offshore drilling and geological exploration, the stability of jack-up rigs is predominantly determined by the bearing capacities of spudcan foundations during seabed penetration. The penetration depth of spudcans is relatively shallow in hard clay. The formation of a cavity on the top surface of a spudcan often complicates accurate estimation of its capacity. This study employs the finite element method, in conjunction with the Swipe and Probe loading techniques, to examine the failure surfaces of soils of varying strengths. Numerical simulations that consider different gradients of undrained shear strength and cavity depths demonstrate that cavity depth significantly influences the failure envelope. The findings indicate that higher soil strength increases the bearing capacity and reduces the area of soil displacement at failure. Moreover, an enhanced theoretical equation for predicting the vertical-horizontal-moment (V-H-M) failure envelope in hard clay strata is proposed. The equation’s accuracy has been verified against numerical simulation results, revealing an error margin of 3–10% under high vertical loads. This model serves as a practical and valuable tool for assessing the stability of jack-up rigs in hard clay, providing critical insights for engineering design safety and risk assessment.