Non-mega sport policy and economic development – a quasi-natural experiment based on the “National Football Model Counties”

Purpose While sports events have emerged as new drivers for economic growth, previous studies have primarily focused on evaluating the direct economic benefits of such events. Few research has examined how policy intervention may amplify the economic benefits of non-mega sports events. Therefore, this paper provides a systematic evaluation of the non-mega sport policy, offering evidence-based insights for maximizing its economic impact. Design/methodology/approach The introduction of Chinese National Football Model Counties (NFMC) in the year 2021 is a “quasi-natural experiment” to measure county-level non-mega sport policy. The study employs a difference-in-differences (DID) model using county-level panel data from China (2019–2023) to examine the economic impact of NFMC. Additionally, heterogeneity analysis is conducted considering local government poverty alleviation priorities and fiscal dependency. Finally, the study investigated the mechanisms through which NFMC effects local economic growth, with particular focus on income levels and industrial structure. Findings The NFMC policy intervention significantly enhances the local economic growth. This finding is consistent with a series of robustness checks. Furthermore, the effects of NFMC on economic growth are more significant in counties not designated as poverty alleviation areas compared to those that are. Additionally, for counties with less reliance on fiscal resources from local governments, the NFMC is more effective. Mechanism analysis shows that the NFMC improves the local economy through improved income levels, but not upgraded industrial structure. Originality/value By constructing a comprehensive county-level panel dataset, this study examines the causal effects of a non-mega sport policy, the NFMC, on local economic growth. The underlying mechanisms and heterogeneous impacts are further evaluated, enriching the literature on support policy assessment for non-mega sports events.