Potential Responses of Softwood Markets to the Monongahela Decision

Nationwide application of the Monongahela decision would reduce national forest harvests and cause U.S. lumber and plywood prices to rise 15 to 20 percent more over the next two decades than would be expected under current timber flow policy. Softwood stumpage prices would increase 35 to 45 percent over the same period. The price effects of the reduction in national forest output would be partly offset by increased harvest on private lands and increased imports of lumber from Canada. Stumpage prices would increase most on the West Coast, accentuating the trend toward concentration of lumber and plywood production in the South.