The impact of industry structure on the value of national logistics costs/gross domestic product: Evidence from China

The proportion of national logistics costs to Gross Domestic Product (NLC/GDP) serve as a valuable indicator for estimating a country’s overall macro-level logistics costs. In some developing nations, policies aimed at reducing the NLC/GDP ratio have been elevated to the national agenda. Nevertheless, there is a paucity of research examining the variables that can determine this ratio. The purpose of this paper is to offer a scientific approach for investigating the primary determinants of the NLC/GDP and to advice policy for the reduction of macro-level logistics costs. This paper presents a systematic framework for identifying the essential criteria for lowering the NLC/GDP score and employs co-integration analysis and error correction models to evaluate the impact of industrial structure, logistics commodity value, and logistics supply scale on NLC/GDP using time series data from 1991 to 2022 in China. The findings suggest that the industrial structure is the primary factor influencing logistics demand and a significant determinant of the value of NLC/GDP. Whether assessing long-term or short-term effects, the industrial structure has a substantial impact on NLC/GDP compared to logistics supply scale and logistics commodity value. The research offers two policy implications: firstly, the goals of reducing NLC/GDP and boosting the logistics industry’s GDP are inherently incompatible; it is not feasible to simultaneously enhance the logistics industry’s GDP and decrease the macro logistics cost. Secondly, if China aims to lower its macro-level logistics costs, it must make corresponding adjustments to its industrial structure.