Modeling the Two-Strain Dynamics of COVID-19 in Ghana Using a Logistic Growth Model

Through mutation, viruses constantly change, bringing into existence new variants; SARS-CoV-2 is no different. In December 2020, variants with different characteristics that could affect transmissibility and death emerged around the world of which Ghana is not an exception. To address this new phenomenon, a two-strain mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 was formulatedto analyzed thetransmission dynamicsin Ghana. Thedisease-free equilibriumwas calculated. The basicreproduction number, R₀= max{R0A, R0B} = max(0.9957945674, 1.109170840), associated with the model is computed using the next generation matrix operator. The disease-free equilibrium is found to be locally asymptotically stable when both R0A, R0B < 1, but unstable otherwise. In addition to the disease-free, the boundary equilibrium for strain A and strain B was also calculated. Using the Gershgorin’s circle theorem, it was shown that the boundary equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable when both R0A, R0B > 1, but unstable when otherwise. Simulations of the model were carried out. Results indicate that the government should intensify its efforts to vaccinate a larger proportion of the population and also recommends implementing comprehensive control measures, such as the use of face masks, social distancing, and contact tracing, to mitigate the spread of the disease.