Addressing Pertussis Outbreaks in the Deep South of Thailand, 2024: a Comparative Cost-effectiveness Study of Various Vaccination Coverage Strategies

This is the authors' abstract. We don't add key points for this paper.

Pertussis outbreaks continue to challenge public health efforts in the Deep South of Thailand. Low vaccination coverage is among many key contributory factors. The objective of this study is to explore policy alternatives aiming to expand vaccination coverage in Thailand’s Deep South. We applied a compartmental model alongside rapid cost-effectiveness analysis to examine how different vaccination strategies impact pertussis cases and associated costs. Four vaccination scenarios with varying coverage levels (ranging from 62% to 91% within a 120-day timeframe) were compared against a scenario with the baseline vaccine coverage (61%). With a reproduction number (R0) of five, the model predicted a remarkable decrease in pertussis cases and fatalities as the vaccination coverage increases. All scenarios yielded cost-saving outcomes, with the scenario of an increase of 10% coverage being the most cost-effective relative to the status quo. However, in high epidemic states (R0=6), the scenario of an increase of 30% coverage was the most optimal for cost-saving in deaths prevention. These results highlight the need for expedite vaccine roll-out and the integration of non-pharmaceutical interventions for pertussis control. Further studies that explore various aspects of the model while incorporating more intricate parameters are recommended.