A Two-Stage Evaluation of China’s New Energy Industrial Policy Package

Energy structural transformation plays a strategically important role in achieving the dual-carbon reduction goals. Among the various approaches to carbon reduction, the Chinese government regards the growth of the new energy industry as an essential means. Considering that the government policy support determines the long-term growth of the new energy industry, how to improve and optimize the policy support system has always been the core issue. Based on the fact that policy evaluation is a prerequisite, and the new energy industrial development requires the government to promote solutions in the form of a policy package rather than just individual policies, we investigate whether the implementation of the new energy industry policy package (NEIPP) is effective through an empirical case study of Shanghai. A two-stage evaluation method, which integrates the content analysis method (CAM) and synthetic control method (SCM), was used to empirically evaluate the actual effect of the NEIPP. At Stage One, four policy goals were summarized. SCM was used to identify the pure multi-effect of the NEIPP. The results showed that the NEIPP had a significant positive effect on green economic growth and industrial structure, while having a negative effect on carbon emissions. The NEIPP had no impact on the promotion of technological innovation. Several policy implications were drawn from this study.